There are three important games today and one completely irrelevant game. In Group A, which plays at 10 AM EST, it doesn't matter whether Poland beats Costa Rica or the other way around -- both teams have been mathematically eliminated and can't advance. In the other game, Germany and Ecuador play for first place and the advantage of not having to face England in the next round. Ecuador has the edge on goal differential and will win group A unless Germany wins outright.

Group B is where the action is. England has already definitely qualified for the semis and will win the group with either a draw or a win against Sweden. Sweden will win the group if they beat England, which they probably won't, and will qualify for the semis if they don't lose, which I certainly hope they will.

If Sweden does lose, the Paraguay-Trinidad & Tobago game suddenly becomes very interesting. Paraguay is mathematically eliminated, but Trinidad & Tobago can still make the semis if they beat Paraguay and then win on goal differentials. That would have to mean a goal differential swing of +3 in favor of T&T, which isn't at all outside the realm of possibility.

On the plus side, if Sweden does advance, they will solidify their status as this tournament's truest, vilest villains so far, which will make their inevitable loss to either Germany or Ecuador quite satisfying.